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2024 Back-to-College Shopper Forecast

Written by Jayme Muller

July 19, 2024

College dorm with laptop and desk

Back-to-school (BTS) season is upon us.

With advertising starting as early as May and extending through October, peak BTS shopping is typically between early- to mid-July through mid-August. It’s a season that impacts parents, students and retailers alike. A season of intense and intentional spending that creates a significant boost in sales in those key back-to-school categories.

Each year, the National Retail Federation (NRF) puts out a back-to-school and back-to-college survey to predict shopping habits and total spend at both grade school and college levels.

Given college students are more likely to need items sold by Independent retailers, such electronics and home furnishings, let’s look at the back-to-college (BTC) findings from the survey.

For 2024, the NRF expects households to spend an average of $1,364.75 on college-specific purchases, with total U.S. spend expected to reach $86.6 billion. Believe it or not, that is down from last year’s record-breaking forecast of $94 billion.

According to the NRF survey results, the top two categories for BTC spending are:

  • Electronics — average household spend of $359.49 ($22.8 billion total)
  • Dorm and apartment furnishings — average household spend $192.40 ($12.2 billion total)

Overall, 50-percent of parents and students are predicted to shop online, which means that having a strong online presence is crucial for a larger piece of the $87 billion dollar pie. However, the other 50 percent are just as valuable. CapitalOne Shopping Research reveals that 12 percent of back-to-college consumers shop at small and local businesses specifically. While that may not sound like a lot, it is still a $10.3 billion dollar slice of the total pie.

And it’s certainly not too late to get into the back-to-college promotional frenzy if you haven’t started yet. According to CapitalOne’s research, 37 percent of shoppers don’t start shopping until the final three weeks of summer and 13 percent are still purchasing after the semester begins.

Whether you sell electronics, furniture or small appliances, having a back-to-college strategy is important. Let BTC shoppers know you carry what they need, especially if you’re able to promote prices and services that beat the competition. Or if your state offers a tax-free weekend, plan accordingly to get those in-market shoppers to your store on those days.

Don’t let Big Box have all the fun while school’s out for the summer!

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