Economists seem to want to remain relatively cautious when it comes to their expectations for how consumers will spend during the holiday shopping period – which is currently underway. But if the latest retail report from the Commerce Department is any indication, there’s plenty of signs for the industry to remain optimistic. The October edition of the report showed that retail sales were up 0.4 percent from September – a slight cool off from the 0.8 percent gains a month prior – to $718.9 billion. That figure, though, represented a 2.3 percent increase from October 2023.
“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for the National Retail Federation, said in a statement after the report was released. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”
Leading the way among retail categories in the October was electronics and appliance stores where sales jumped 2.3 percent month-over-month. Sales at furniture and home furnishings stores were also up just slightly for the month. Year-to-date, the Commerce Departments numbers show that electronics and appliance stores are holding steady, with sales up 0.2 percent compared to the first 10 months of last year. Furniture and home furnishings stores are faring not as well, with their sales falling off around 3.9 percent compared to the first 10 months of 2023.
NRF, which maintains its own retail sales tracker using actual, anonymized credit and debut card purchase data, released its own monthly retail sales report earlier last week. The group’s October Retail Monitor report, powered by Affinity Solutions, showed that core retail sales (defined as retail sales, minus automobile, gasoline, and restaurant sales) were up 0.83 percent month-over-month and 4.59 percent year-over-year – positive gains compared to the 0.28 percent monthly and 0.94 percent annual growth seen in September.
“Healthy spending resumed in October as consumers continued to benefit from this year’s job gains and higher wages,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement around the release of the group’s October Retail Monitor report. “Inflation is mostly limited to services at this point and prices for some retail goods are actually falling. October sales have set the stage for a good start to the holiday shopping season.”
To that end, NRF maintains its strong projection for the holiday period. The group anticipates consumer spending during the November-December timeframe to increase between 2.5 and 3.5 percent compared to last year. Nearly half (45 percent) of consumers NRF surveyed for its annual holiday retail report said they planned to start their holiday shopping before November.
